Head of International Forecasting and Modelling Transformation

City Of London, England, United Kingdom

12/13/2024

We are running a pooled recruitment campaign for three roles as part of the Bank's Monetary Policy Transformation programme: Head of International Forecasting and Modelling Transformation, Head of Economic Outlook Division, and Head of Macro Model Development Division.

Please note that the Head of Transformation Delivery Division role is not included in the pooled recruitment campaign process for the roles within the Bank's Monetary Policy Transformation programme. If you are interested in the Head of Transformation Delivery Division role, you will need to submit a separate application.

If you are interested in more than one of the pooled campaign positions, you do not need to submit separate applications; however, please clearly indicate which role(s) you wish to be considered for in your application

As part of this campaign, we may also consider creating additional roles in the future, particularly where these roles are critical for securing specialised technical skills essential to the success of the transformation programme or to address any vacancies in MA and ID that may arise as part of this process. We encourage all interested candidates to express their interest through this process.

Department description

The International Directorate (ID) seeks to:

• Analyse developments in, and risks to the United Kingdom from, the global economy and financial system.
• Devise, together with other directorates, appropriate responses to them in support of all the Bank's policy objectives; and
• Ensure that the Bank's engagement in international fora advances the Bank's international strategy for achieving these policy objectives.

This role is to lead a new division that is being established for the duration of the Bank's Monetary Policy Transformation (MPT) programme (which incorporates the Bank's response to the Bernanke review). The Head of International Forecasting and Modelling Transformation (IFMT) division in ID will deliver the international aspects of MPT. As such, the division will work closely with the existing Global Analysis Division (GAD) and International Surveillance Division (ISD) in ID, who deliver analysis to support both the MPC and FPC, as well as working alongside those leading the MPT work in Monetary Analysis.

Brief description

This is an exciting opportunity to be at the heart of one of the Bank's new strategic initiatives, delivering a once-in-a-generation change to the way the Bank conducts monetary policy. It is a new role that will oversee the crucial programme of work in the International Directorate to improve and modernise our modelling and forecasting toolkit, infrastructure and processes as part of the wider Monetary Policy Transformation (MPT) programme. This will include improving data transformation, upgrading our core forecasting models, building new models to capture key channels for the transmission of international shocks to the UK and enhancing our capabilities for international scenario analysis. The programme will also establish new processes for forecast evaluation and model development to ensure the improvements made are sustained once the programme has finished.

The job holder will need to establish a new division of economists, modellers and data scientists. They will need to work closely with other parts of the MPT programme and ensure that the role of international developments is fully embedded into the wider process to support MPC.

This is a change management role. The job holder will need to provide strategic leadership to establish a vision for the ID aspects of MPT, bringing the division and the rest of the directorate with them, providing the drive and energy to see the changes through to completion, effectively embedding them in ID's day-to-day work. The jobholder will also need to work closely with the rest of the ID leadership team to ensure that a culture of continuous improvement is embedded in the directorate. There is considerable scope in this role to provide intellectual leadership in shaping ID's approach to forecasting, scenario analysis and generating economic insights on the impact of global shocks on the UK economy for the MPC, while working closely with the Heads of GAD and ISD.

Detailed description

The job involves:

• Developing a vision for the ID elements of the MPT that is ambitious and aligned with the overall objectives of the programme, and then translating that into a concrete plan for delivery. As part of this, the job holder will need to work closely with GAD and ISD to ensure that what is delivered meets the needs of BAU teams.
• Establishing a new division of 15-20 people, bringing in the right technical skills (focusing in particular on economic modelling and data science) and ensuring ID has the capacity to deliver the changes required, both within the division and across ID more broadly.
• You will be responsible for establishing the division's structure and staffing to effectively achieve its objectives. While some team members may already be in place at the division's inception, having transferred as part of the area's restructuring, you will oversee the overall organisation and alignment of the team.
• Leading the division in a way that maximises its impact, fostering a culture of intellectual curiosity, empowerment and inclusion.
• Providing intellectual leadership, in particular around key design choices for the new toolkit, infrastructure and processes to be delivered.
• Playing an active role in the wider leadership of the Monetary Policy Transformation programme, helping to shape the overall direction and ensuring that the objectives of ID are factored into the wider roadmap for the programme.
• Overseeing all aspects of the implementation of the MPT programme in ID, including prioritisation of work, troubleshooting issues and providing quality assurance of outputs.
• Working effectively with the rest of the ID Leadership Team to ensure that the new toolkit, infrastructure and processes are effectively embedded in the teams in GAD and ISD that will need to use them as part of business as usual.
• Establishing links with key stakeholders across the Bank to ensure that the ID elements of the MPT programme have broad buy-in and plans and progress are well communicated.
• Contributing to the broader running of ID as part of its leadership team.

Minimum (essential) criteria:

• Strategic leadership skills to establish a clear vision and understand how the work of the division fits into the broader work of the Bank's International Directorate and the wider monetary policy environment.
• The ability to develop, build and manage diverse and inclusive teams, including through providing excellent feedback and investing in others.
• Strong change management skills, with the ability to initiate, drive and deliver change in a way that leads to sustained beneficial outcomes.
• A strong background in macroeconomics, with the ability to oversee the technical work of others.
• The ability to provide thought leadership to effectively deliver a programme of work through others and challenge where appropriate.
• The desire and ability to develop effective relationships with a diverse range of stakeholders, across all levels of seniority.
• An ability to communicate clearly and convincingly by distilling complex issues into their essentials (both in writing and verbally), including to a senior audience.
• A demonstrated commitment to diversity and inclusion.

Desirable but not essential criteria:

• Previous exposure to international macroeconomics/finance

Our Approach to Inclusion

The Bank values diversity and inclusion - we want to reflect the society we serve; we want the best people to work for us and we want our workplace to be inclusive. We are an equal opportunities employer and welcome applications from all qualified persons.

This role is open to job shares, flexible and part-time working patterns. There are a number of senior roles in the areas supporting monetary policy that are filled by job shares or individuals working flexibly and we have a good track record of making these working arrangements a success.

For most roles where work can be carried out at home, we aim for colleagues to spend half of their time in the office, with a minimum of 40% per month. Subject to that minimum requirement, individuals and managers should work together to find what works best for them, their team and stakeholders.
Finally, we're proud to be a member of the Disability Confident Scheme. If you wish to apply under this scheme, you should check the box in the 'Candidate Personal Information' under the 'Disability Confident Scheme' section of the application.

How to apply

Please apply online, ensuring that you complete your work history and answer ALL the application questions fully and in detail as your application will not be considered if all mandatory questions are not fully completed.

A full description of the selection process, as part of a wider information pack, will be shared with candidates who progress to first interview.

We expect to be able to inform those candidates who are advancing to first interview stage by the end of January 2025.

Salary and Benefits Information
The position offers a competitive salary.
In addition, we also offer a comprehensive benefits package as detailed below:

• A non-contributory, career average pension giving you a guaranteed retirement benefit of 1/95th of your annual salary for every year worked. There is the option to increase your pension (to 1/50th) or decrease (to 1/120th) in exchange for salary through our flexible benefits programme each year.
• A discretionary performance award based on a current award pool.
• A 8% benefits allowance with the option to take as salary or purchase a wide range of flexible benefits.
• 26 days' annual leave with option to buy up to 12 additional days through flexible benefits.
• Private medical insurance and income protection.
  
  

National Security Vetting Process
Employment in this role will be subject to the National Security Vetting clearance process (and typically can take between 6 to 12 weeks post offer) and the passing of additional Bank security checks in accordance with the Bank policy. Further information regarding the vetting and security clearance requirements for the role will be provided to the successful applicant, and information about how the Bank processes personal data for these purposes, is set out in the Bank's Privacy Notice.